Trying to find interventions that accomplish the most good is extremely difficult. Sometimes we have to make uncertain and subjective judgement calls about the quality of some body of evidence, or make speculative forecasts about some unknown variable. It’s very important, therefore, to make sure that we use the best reasoning processes we can to try and improve the accuracy of our judgments.
This Topic focuses on a range of different tools that we might be able to use to increase our good judgment and ability to forecast well.
Key Material
Further Reading
Other topics to check out
What should we do given that we can't evaluate the vast indirect effects of our actions?
Is maximising expected value the right approach for trying to do the most good? How should we approach tiny probabilities of doing vast amounts of good?
Is the expected value of the future positive or negative? A crucial consideration for the value of extinction risk reduction.