Expected value and fanaticism

Expected value and fanaticism

ℹ️

This list draws heavily from Shelly Kagan's Ethics and the Future readings

Resources

🔗

In defence of fanaticism - Hayden Wilkinson (Australian National University) - Global Priorities Institute

🔗

On The Overwhelming Importance Of Shaping The Far Future Chapter 6

🔗

Pascal's mugging - Wikipedia

🔗

Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism - 80,000 Hours

🔗

Exceeding expectations: stochastic dominance as a general decision theory - Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) - Global Priorities Institute

🔗

Bostrom, “Pascal’s Mugging” (3 pages)

🔗

Balfour, “Pascal’s Mugger Strikes Again” (6 pages)

🔗

Tarsney, “The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism,” section 6.2 (2 pages) suggests a rough way to measure just how dependent longtermism is on very small probabilities

🔗

Beckstead and Thomas, “A Paradox for Tiny Probabilities and Enormous Values” (36 pages)

Issues of how to handle the possibility of infinite value

🔗

On The Overwhelming Importance Of Shaping The Far Future Chapter 7

🔗

Bostrom, “Infinite Ethics.” (55 pages)

Other topics to check out

Expected value of the future

Expected value of the future

Expected value of the future

Is the expected value of the future positive or negative? A crucial consideration for the value of extinction risk reduction.

Moral uncertainty

Moral uncertainty

Moral uncertainty

How do we approach decision making when we lack certainty in any one moral theory?