The "most important century" series of blog posts argues that the 21st century could be the most important century ever for humanity, via the development of advanced AI systems that could dramatically speed up scientific and technological advancement, getting us more quickly than most people imagine to a deeply unfamiliar future.
Our wildly important era
Our century's potential for acceleration
looks at economic growth and scientific advancement over the course of human history. Over the last few generations, growth has been pretty steady. But zooming out to a longer time frame, it seems that growth has greatly accelerated recently; is near its historical high point; and is faster than it can be for all that much longer (there aren't enough atoms in the galaxy to sustain this rate of growth for even another 10,000 years).
The times we live in are unusual and unstable. Rather than planning on more of the same, we should anticipate stagnation (growth and scientific advancement slowing down), explosion (further acceleration) or collapse.
Forecasting transformative AI this century
summarizes the biological anchors framework for forecasting AI. This framework is the main factor in my specific forecasts.
I am forecasting more than a 10% chance transformative AI will be developed within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance it will be developed within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance it will be developed this century (by 2100).
briefly summarizes the state of the arguments and addresses the question, "Where does expert opinion stand on all of this?"
- The claims I'm making neither contradict a particular expert consensus, nor are supported by one (though most of the key reports I cite have had external expert review). They are, rather, claims about topics that simply have no "field" of experts devoted to studying them.
- Some people might choose to ignore any claims that aren't actively supported by a robust expert consensus; but I don't think that is what we should be doing here.