Key Material๐Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?๐Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?๐Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)๐AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand๐Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshellMore to Explore๐Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?๐New Report on How Much Computational Power It Takes to Match the Human Brain๐What should we learn from past AI forecasts?๐The Bitter Lesson๐The Scaling Hypothesis ยท Gwern.netNext in the 'Why care about AI?' SequenceTopicsThe Alignment ProblemThe Alignment ProblemHow can we get AI to act in accordance with our values?