In this week of the programme, you’ll reflect broadly on ways our world could change for better or worse in the future. Evidence from long-run economic growth suggests we could, in future, see explosive economic growth and technological progress, rapidly creating a very different world. You’ll discuss the possibility of collapse and of stagnation, consider what other outcomes might occur, and think about how economic and technological development relate to quality of life and the value of the future.
Curriculum
Core materials
On how the future might be different:
'All possible views about humanity's future are wild' - Holden Karnofsky
‘This can’t go on' - Holden Karnofsky
‘’Dystopian Scenarios’ in ‘Chapter 5: Future Risks’’ in ‘The Precipice’ by Toby Ord
'The muddle through hypothesis' - Stefan Schubert
On the value of the future:
'Actually possible: Thoughts on Utopia' - Joseph Carlsmith
'How big a deal was the industrial revolution?' - Luke Muelhauser. Discusses the relationship between the economic and technological developments of the industrial revolution and improvements in quality of life at that time. Understanding this historical relationship can be useful for understanding the relationship between progress and wellbeing in general.
Recommended reading
'Summary of history (empowerment and wellbeing lens)' Holden Karnofsky. Sketches history from the perspective of moral progress and improvements in the lives of ordinary people. Understanding these past trends can be useful for predicting how morally innovative the future might be.
'Why describing utopia goes badly' - Holden Karnofsky
More to explore
'Why might the future be good?' - Paul Christiano
'Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox' - Stuart Armstrong and Anders Sandberg. This paper argues that using space travel to spread out into the universe requires surprisingly limited resources and energy - and may be within reach for humanity before too long.
'S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks and how to prevent them' Max Daniel. The worst potential futures could involve s-risks - risks of astronomical suffering on a scale we’ve never seen. These risks are explored in this talk.
Next in the Introduction to Longtermism Series
Trajectory Change
Trajectory Change
Can we predictably intervene to shape the balance of possible futures?