This is a link-post for 'Key sources for the "most important century" series'
Eternity in Six Hours: Intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox (Armstrong and Sandberg 2013)
Discusses how a stable galaxy-wide civilization could be created with not-yet-existing, but achievable-seeming, technologies. Cited in All possible views about humanity's long-term future are wild.
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox (Sandberg, Drexler and Ord 2018)
Argues that the hardest, most unlikely steps on the road to galaxy-scale expansion are likely the steps our species has already taken. Cited in All possible views about humanity's long-term future are wild.
The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled (Slate Star Codex 2019)
Modeling the Human Trajectory (Roodman 2020)
Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth? (Davidson 2021)
Age of Em (Hanson 2018)
The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis (Chalmers 2010, Section 9)
Zombies (Yudkowsky 2016)
The Conscious Mind (Chalmers 1996)
Limits to Growth (Hanson 2009)
Galactic-Scale Energy (Murphy 2011)
Superintelligence (Bostrom 2017)
Draft report on existential risk from power-seeking AI (Carlsmith 2021)
Report on Semi-informative Priors (Davidson 2021)
Estimates the probability of transformative AI by various dates using a relatively simple mathematical framework.
What should we learn from past AI forecasts? (Muehlhauser 2016)
Examines past "AI hype cycles."
When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts (Grace, Salvatier, Dafoe, Zhang, Evans 2017).
Survey of 352 AI researchers on future AI capabilities
Draft report on Biological Anchors (Cotra 2020).
Estimates the probability of transformative AI by various dates, by asking: "Based on the usual patterns in how much 'AI training' costs, how much would it cost to train an AI model as big as a human brain to perform the hardest tasks humans do? And when will this be cheap enough that we can expect someone to do it?"
How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? (Carlsmith 2020)
Methodology informs the "AI model as big as a human brain" aspect of the Biological Anchors report.
The Future of Human Evolution (Bostrom 2004)
on potential bad dynamics of a "race to populate the galaxy."
The Precipice (Ord 2020) Chapter 7.
Discusses the "long reflection," a potential period in which people could collectively decide upon goals and hopes for the future, ideally representing the most fair available compromise between different perspectives
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Most Important Century Series
Most Important Century Series
A series of blog posts that argue that the 21st century could be the most important century ever for humanity