Sources Deep Dive for The Most Important Century Series

Sources Deep Dive for The Most Important Century Series

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Eternity in Six Hours: Intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradoxย (Armstrong and Sandberg 2013) Discusses how a stable galaxy-wide civilization could be created with not-yet-existing, but achievable-seeming, technologies. Cited inย All possible views about humanity's long-term future are wild.
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Dissolving the Fermi Paradoxย (Sandberg, Drexler and Ord 2018) Argues that the hardest, most unlikely steps on the road to galaxy-scale expansion are likely the steps our species has already taken. Cited inย All possible views about humanity's long-term future are wild.
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Age of Emย (Hanson 2018)
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The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysisย (Chalmers 2010, Section 9)
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Zombiesย (Yudkowsky 2016)
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The Conscious Mindย (Chalmers 1996)
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Limits to Growthย (Hanson 2009)
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Galactic-Scale Energyย (Murphy 2011)
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Superintelligenceย (Bostrom 2017)
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Report on Semi-informative Priorsย (Davidson 2021) Estimates the probability of transformative AI by various dates using a relatively simple mathematical framework.
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What should we learn from past AI forecasts?ย (Muehlhauser 2016) Examines past "AI hype cycles."
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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Expertsย (Grace, Salvatier, Dafoe, Zhang, Evans 2017). Survey of 352 AI researchers on future AI capabilities
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Draft report on Biological Anchorsย (Cotra 2020). Estimates the probability of transformative AI by various dates, by asking: "Based on the usual patterns in how much 'AI training' costs, how much would it cost to train an AI model as big as a human brain to perform the hardest tasks humans do? And when will this be cheap enough that we can expect someone to do it?"
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How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?ย (Carlsmith 2020) Methodology informs the "AI model as big as a human brain" aspect of the Biological Anchors report.
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The Future of Human Evolutionย (Bostrom 2004) on potential bad dynamics of a "race to populate the galaxy."
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The Precipiceย (Ord 2020) Chapter 7. Discusses the "long reflection," a potential period in which people could collectively decide upon goals and hopes for the future, ideally representing the most fair available compromise between different perspectives

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