Expected value of the future![Expected value of the future](https://images.spr.so/cdn-cgi/imagedelivery/j42No7y-dcokJuNgXeA0ig/a22e3cf5-d6b2-410a-b198-6805e6747d39/11._Fuchsia/w=1920,quality=90,fit=scale-down)
Expected value of the future
Is the expected value of the future positive or negative? A crucial consideration for the value of extinction risk reduction.
Cluelessness![Cluelessness](https://images.spr.so/cdn-cgi/imagedelivery/j42No7y-dcokJuNgXeA0ig/b1517784-ca75-460b-ab6c-163375dc98f3/10._Mindaro/w=1920,quality=90,fit=scale-down)
Cluelessness
What should we do given that we can't evaluate the vast indirect effects of our actions?
Expected value and fanaticism![Expected value and fanaticism](https://images.spr.so/cdn-cgi/imagedelivery/j42No7y-dcokJuNgXeA0ig/a27e6914-0849-4684-8977-bc774aa7e88e/07._Tidal/w=1920,quality=90,fit=scale-down)
Expected value and fanaticism
Is maximising expected value the right approach for trying to do the most good? How should we approach tiny probabilities of doing vast amounts of good?