Expected value of the future

Expected value of the future

Is the expected value of the future positive or negative? A crucial consideration for the value of extinction risk reduction.

Cluelessness

Cluelessness

What should we do given that we can't evaluate the vast indirect effects of our actions?

Expected value and fanaticism

Expected value and fanaticism

Is maximising expected value the right approach for trying to do the most good? How should we approach tiny probabilities of doing vast amounts of good?